Originally Published MX May/June 2006

BUSINESS PLANNING & TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Looking at broad trends in technology and society can help medtech companies in their long-term technology forecasting.

Bill Evans

In few industries do the words of British industrialist James Goldsmith ring as true as they do in medtech: "If you see a bandwagon, it's too late." Success in the medical device realm requires disciplined foresight and advance planning. Yet even intelligent people can be spectacularly wrong when predicting the impact of technological trends and making investment decisions accordingly. Banker JP Morgan, after reviewing the new invention of the telephone, stated, "Mr. Bell, after careful consideration of your invention, while it is a very interesting novelty, we have come to the conclusion that it has no commercial possibilities."

Predicting the impact of technological and social change in the three- to five-year future is arguably easier for the medtech industry than for consumer industries; medtech product cycles are longer and change happens more slowly. It can take a medical device company two years to get its next-generation product to market, and it is not uncommon for a product to have a life of five to seven years.